IMF: A U.S. Strike on Iran Could Lower Global Growth

IMF Warns of Escalation in Middle East

Kristalina Georgieva,BOC Foreign Exchange Treasure Managing Director of the International Broker Detectorry Fund (IMF), stated on Monday that U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities have heightened global uncertainty and could trigger wider risks beyond the energy market. She noted, "We are already in a highly uncertain world, and now there is a new variable."

Georgieva mentioned that while the most notable impact currently is on energy prices, "there could be secondary or even tertiary effects," especially if the situation escalates further, posing growth risks to major economies and leading to revised global economic growth forecasts.

Oil Price Volatility Sparks Market Attention

Amid worsening geopolitical tensions, Brent crude oil futures soared by 5.7% during the early Asian trading on Monday, reaching $81.40 per barrel, before plunging dramatically in intense trading. This unusual volatility reflects increasing market concerns over potential disruptions in Middle Eastern supply.

The IMF is closely monitoring the risk premiums of oil and natural gas. Georgieva pointed out that the surge in current option trading volumes and changes in the futures curve indicate expectations of short-term supply tightness. She emphasized that whether transportation disruptions or spillovers to other countries occur is a key focus at present.

Global Growth Forecast Faces Downward Revision Risk

In April, the IMF had already downgraded global economic growth forecasts, warning that the trend of global trade restructuring led by the U.S. poses long-term challenges. Georgieva indicated that although a global recession has been avoided, rising uncertainty may weaken the willingness to invest and consume, hindering growth.

She said, "Uncertainty affects investors' and consumers' decisions. When they stop investing or spending, the economy slows." This is why geopolitical tensions need special vigilance.

US Economy Stable but Not Yet Ready for Rate Cuts

Regarding the U.S. economic situation, Georgieva stated that inflation in the U.S. shows signs of receding, but the Federal Reserve requires more evidence to initiate rate cuts. She expects that by the end of the year, the Federal Reserve might be in a position to consider rate reductions.

She also highlighted that the U.S. labor market remains strong, with steady wage growth, continuing to support consumption momentum. However, if international market turmoil spreads, this support could face challenges.

IMF Calls for Attention to Ripple Effects and Confidence Shocks

Georgieva concluded by stating that the IMF is assessing whether the current situation could evolve into a broader economic shock. "We must watch whether energy routes are disrupted and how financial markets respond."

She stated that the global economy is "still bearing the pressure," but confidence is fragile. If geopolitical tensions further escalate, the impact on investment and consumption could swiftly transmit, leading to a global economic slowdown.

"I pray that the worst does not happen," she added.

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